MLS Expansion Power Rankings

12 Cities are battling it out to be awarded the next 4 MLS expansion spots. These next 4 teams will bring the league to 28 teams, its stopping point (LAFC is 23 and Miami is still assumed to be 24). I will be ranking the 12 candidates from best expansion cities to worst, as well as giving a detailed overview to the pros and cons of expanding to that city.

1. Cincinnati
Cincinnati makes to most sense. If you've talked with me on Instagram about MLS expansion, you know i'm a big supporter of MLS to Cincinnati. FC Cincinnati is averaging 19,887 per league game this season which leads all of division two American soccer by 8,318 (not counting a few USOC games with 30k+). This is also a better average than 10 current MLS clubs this season (including in-state rival Columbus Crew who have the worst attendance in MLS with just 14,139/game). Not only is the attendance top notch, but the ownership group is more than capable of supporting the club to MLS. Just the other day, FCC announced a partnership with the Cincinnati Development Academy. Also recently, the club released the proposed stadium which, in my opinion, is the best proposed stadium of all the expansion candidates.

The stadium is inspired by Bayern's Allianz Arena. The colors on the outside can change as can the design.  Just make sure the stadium is built at least in Ohio, not Kentucky, and we'll be set.

Verdict: Not expanding to Cincinnati would be a colossal mistake for MLS.

2. Sacramento

Number two in attendance of all lower division American soccer is Sacramento Republic. The Republic sell out every game (over 11,000) and have created a grassroots supporters culture. There was some uncertainty if the MLS to Sacramento bid would include the Republic at first but it seems those issues have been squared away. Sacramento already has a shovel ready stadium plan approved by city council.

Notice the Tower Bridge Battalion flag in the renderings. I like how supporter oriented Sacramento is. 

Another perk of expanding to Sacramento is there is relatively no other teams competing in their sports market besides the NBA's Kings whose season is at different times than the MLS season for the most part. All the pieces are in place for a successful MLS club in Sacramento
Verdict: Often underrated but a really smart choice.

3. San Antonio
Cities 3-5 I see as a bit of dark horse candidates. San Antonio is very similar to Sacramento when analyzing MLS expansion. The USL team already gets solid support, the ownership group is the same as the NBA's Spurs (which is also the only major sports competition in the city), and a beautiful stadium that already built (should San Antonio be granted MLS expansion, they would expand their already top notch stadium).

RIP San Antonio Scorpions

Verdict: The support could be better but expanding to San Antonio would be a success.

4. Indianapolis

Perhaps the biggest dark horse of all the candidates. Indianapolis surprised people when they decided to become an MLS expansion candidate this early instead of waiting to fill one of the later expansion spots. A lot of people tend to overlook Indy as a viable candidate but I think they're one of the best. Indy Eleven have undoubtedly the best support in the NASL as well as the highest attendance. Indianapolis as a whole is often underrated as a sports city. The Indy 500 and Brickyard 400 are both huge sporting events that have largely contributed to the identity of the city and the Colts and Pacers are both widely supported. Their proposed stadium is one of my favorites as well

Verdict: All the pieces are in place (including an authentic supporters culture) for a successful MLS club.

5. Phoenix
Another dark horse is this race to 28 MLS clubs. The rebrand Phoenix Rising FC seems to be working in terms of support, as attendance skyrockets from 1,470 last season to 6,591 this season (348% increase). Phoenix also brought in all-but-retired legend Didier Drogba to be the first ever owner and player in all of sports to help propel their MLS campaign. There is still uncertainty in Phoenix as there is no history of sustainable support for soccer, however the support this year seems promising.

Verdict: Will be great if the club is run properly.

6. Tampa Bay
DISCLAIMER: I am an Orlando City supporter so I may be bias when it comes to evaluating Tampa Bay and the Rowdies
Tampa Bay seems to be very high up on a lot of lists for expansion but I still see pieces missing. While the ownership, media market, and stadium approval is all there, I don't see Tampa Bay getting consistent MLS level support should they get the MLS team. The Rowdies are currently averaging 5,663/game which is below average for independent USL clubs. Tampa Bay, in my book, has yet to prove they can support an MLS team. For the time being, USL is the perfect level for the Rowdies.

I'm not too keen on their stadium plan either. Expanding a minor league baseball stadium doesn't appeal to me

Verdict: Expanding to Tampa Bay might be sustainable, but I expect the team's support to be below-average.

7. Nashville

I could use this part to talk about how Nashville SC killed a supporter's owned 4th division club that was receiving great support but that's for another time. The city of Nashville has not shown it can support soccer above the D4 level. I find it to be too risky to expand to a city that hasn't fielded a team above NPSL to "test the waters". Nashville SC will start USL play after the next two MLS expansion sides are announced so vying for one of the last two expansion spots is far more realistic. They've also yet to release an official stadium plan. 

Verdict: Giving them a team now is far too risky. Wait and see how the USL team does before considering expanding to Nashville

8. Raleigh

Unlike Nashville, Raleigh has fielded a professional team. The support received by North Carolina FC is perfectly fine for NASL but I doubt those will turn into good MLS numbers if they play top flight. Raleigh is a small market and its soccer roots are not deep yet. The rebrand to NCFC gave the club a more professional look but the attendance has remained stagnant. Averaging 4,500 is good for a second division team in Raleigh-Durham but nothing has shown me this club, or this city, is MLS ready.

Verdict: A small market and average NASL support does not translate to MLS success 

9. Charlotte

Charlotte is a far bigger market than Raleigh-Durham yet their current team gets far less support. The Charlotte Independence have the lowest average attendance among D2 independent clubs (1,572/game). This shows us Charlotte is not a soccer city. While MLS does bring a new club with new ownership and management, I don't believe that's enough to make up for the lack of support for current Charlotte soccer. 

Verdict: Decent size market yet still can't muster up convincing soccer support.

10. St. Louis

Ah, St. Louis. The early favorites. St. Louis as a city has an incredible amount of soccer history and St. Louis FC gets above average support. Unfortunately, the stadium plan fell in a city wide vote which all but eliminated StL.

Verdict: Would be great if they got the stadium plan worked out. Privately funded stadiums are the way to go, y'all.

11. San Diego

I could copy and paste what I wrote for number 10 and change the words St. Louis to San Diego. San Diego was an early favorite only to be virtually eliminated by their stadium plan falling through. In addition to that, we haven't seen San Diego field a pro team so the uncertainty in Nashville is in San Diego as well. San Diego is also in an increasingly over saturated SoCal soccer market. 

Verdict: Even if the stadium worked out, there are more issues with expanding to San Diego.

12. Detroit

Expanding to Detroit would make me lose what little respect I have left for MLS. Detroit City FC, arguably the most successful NPSL club in the nation, has created the best supporter's culture in the country. MLS would kill the atmosphere and community DCFC and the Northern Guard have created. Because of this, the club (and the supporters) have no intention of joining MLS. As we already know, MLS doesn't care about supporter's culture. Expanding to Detroit would mean the creation of a new club by billionaires who don't care about soccer. These billionaires will attempt to leech off of the success of DCFC, as they will name the franchise Detroit City Soccer Club. If you value authentic supporter's culture in American soccer, you will oppose MLS expanding to Detroit. 

Verdict: Have some respect for the game and stay out of Detroit.